COW

COW was a good call that I botched as a trade. It's in an overall bear trend but had been retracing for several weeks when I noticed that it had filled a gap, hit a fib, perfected DeMark, hit a RSI resistance line, and had negative reversal on RSI. The wave count also looked good. I shorted and made some money but not as much as I should have:

See, I shorted right at the top. Almost to the penny. A wonderful trade. Then I noticed however that the 5 wave had not completed. That red A wave traced out on the day that the market bottomed and then the B wave started to climb. Realizing that this wave was eventually heading back north I decided to bale less I have to eat a loss with a strong rebounding B wave. Unfortunately this is about where I got lost in the weeds and didn't notice that the B wave hadn't rebounded but had gone soft. The result is what you see, a meandering C wave that is just about to head into it's 5th wave down.

The two red lines are a fib cluster zone I'd computed during the retracement. Based on general market action (slow and climbing) I'm guessing that this C wave traces back to the lower fib (probably bottoming in conjunction with the next S&P retracement). That still gives it plenty of head room over the 1 wave. Then it will climb north along with the market for a final rally.

This will mark a buying opportunity although COW isn't a highly volatile entity so the profit potential is not that much greater than the market in general. I would watch for RSI to bottom out at 20 and of course would look for some motive action before jumping in. This is a slow moving target so I wouldn't worry about missing much upside.

I also see nice positive reversal building in the RSI that indicates COW is getting quite oversold. I'm guessing right now that the final peak will be the .618 fib at 30.90 but will calculate positive reversal when the bottom finally arrives.

Finally, the potential short when the 5th wave completes will be a thing of beauty and worth 20% as another downward 5 wave plays out. The last 5 wave played out in 2 months so that's a rather quick profit compared with what the market is likely to offer.