Dollar Ah Hah!

After being beaten over the head with a bull rally I think I've finally come to my senses. I am putting my brain through a cold rinse and washing away all the preconceptions that I had held. Basically, I was wishing for a correction bottom that we already got. In fact I actually called the big day and traded it. The market fell mostly in the overnight and then rallied on news of a Greek austerity plan. It's right there plain as day:

How I could have missed this is remarkable. I was in fact merely married to my price projections. I had projected 125.40 and it only went as low as 126.19. I had started trading that day hell bent on catching the bottom. The bottom came and I just flat missed it. Then I had another two opportunities to catch the bottom on the following days! Yet I willfully ignored the obvious. Shouldn't 79 cents have been close enough to take a long position for what I anticipated would be a 10% summer rally? Live and learn I suppose. Meanwhile it has cost me a 3% potential profit. Lucky I was flat and not short!

Meanwhile, the dollar finally fell into place now that my blinders have been taken off:

Again, this pattern was flat out obvious if only I'd been willing to look for it. A simple contracting flat. We are not in fact in a C wave but are in the final motive wave down for the dollar. How far it will go is anyone's guess although it must break new lows (if my newly regained prescience is correct). When that wave completes (the red arrow) we will finally get the black arrow which signals the bear market.

How willful was I in ignoring this?

Willing to ignore the very pattern I predicted for the oscillator! Not only did I correctly identify the oscillator as a leading signal but I also predicted that the triangle would break to the down side, bounce off of long term support and then head for the sky. Here it did that exact thing and I took a short on FXA in the morning session. In fact, I was the very first trade to break the upper resistance line. How's that for irony?

Okay, missed opportunities aside I actually feel incredibly relieved that I am finally ready to get on the right side of the market. It's still a dangerous trading environment and a retracement is imminent. That will be a good time for an entry in time to catch the 3rd wave of this (presumed) motive.