Updated UUP wave count

I finally have an updated UUP wave count that is satisfying. It is more satisfying than my original wave count which was calling for triangles. Instead we have an A/B/C flat with an upward slope. C of course would be a 5 wave impulse. What I appreciate about this interpretation is that the fibonacci expansion off of what (presumably) is wave 1 of C gives us a target of 21.91. This is damn close to the 21.96 retracement target that I'd computed months ago when UUP first bounced. The little "V" shaped divot at the top of our current position was screaming "expanding B" but I'd willfully ignored the implications because I was impatient for the market to drop.

Again we are lucky in that wave 3 of our current little itty bitty C is smaller than wave 1. So this puts a lower bound on how far this market will climb before heading back for the ground. That lower bound currently is 21.3 but I think that 21.35 (the .618 fib of 1 or 3) is the likely target. Still, that provides the market with plenty of breathing room to climb up before we start seeing some big red bars.

3's are always difficult to parse because of the zig zag action (although a more experienced EW practitioner would likely have had less trouble than I). I was helped out on this by looking at the chart for natural gas (UNG) which required a double take:

This chart looks like a logical interpretation of text book triangles. The bounce off of an old support line and flat bottom would be taken as high probability signs by technical analysts. However closer inspection says, why is wave 1 a 5 wave but not wave B? That deserves a closer look and I believe reveals something different:

Pesky 3/3/5 flat pattern again. It is in fact an expanding flat with B taking it's sweet time. What was a D wave previously is clearly a 5 wave in hindsight.

The implication is critical! It means that gas has one more leg down to complete the C wave. The deadly C wave. Right now technical traders who got stopped out when gas broke the trend line have given it a second try off of the backup support lines. Gas will likely climb back up to 11.30 and could climb as far as 11.80 but then will plummet back. It could go as low as 10 and not violate EW but I'm guessing that irony will be at work and bring it back to 10.40 for another bounce off of that old trend line.

No surprise that UNG and UUP are correlated as are every other asset in existence. The smart trader (smarter than I probably) is checking each day for the chart that is giving the most readable signals.