Tuesday, July 26, 2011

FXY vs. SPY

I found an interesting similarity between the Yen chart and the S&P chart. Here's the SPY chart at 30 minutes:

Here's FXY (Yen ETF):

Notice how both begin with a big rally (incidentally in both cases a rebound from a drastic fall). Then both retrace. SPY retraces deeper. Both then rally again with what looks like a 3 wave form. Then both fall into a slightly curving wedge (actually the FXY is truly curved while the SPY just looks curved because of the internal wave forms but in fact has a straight top).

Now let's see what happened to FXY:

I don't mean to imply that the S&P will take off like quite the rocket but it does bode well for the current pattern, even if it dips a bit further. Neither does it invalidate the bigger picture because FXY is due to drop just as soon as UUP rallies.

If we took the FXY picture and dropped the retracement down to a .618 like the SPY did then we get something like this:

FXY is clearly reacting much more vigorously than the S&P but this does provide perhaps some insight into what currently is a very confusing wave pattern.

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