TLT Technical Heaven

Quite a few technical indicators point to one place on the TLT chart:

That place is 94 or pretty close to it. Let's count them:

1. Fibonacci retracement .382 from peak to peak of entire rally
2. Gap
3. Trend line (blue diagonal line) with 4 respect points
4. Horizontal support line with 3 respect points

Boy a moving average would really seal the deal but frankly this is good enough for me and this is the point where I'll be accumulating a treasury position.

The green circle is the biggest risk point. I feel that this is a breakaway gap as characterized by the gap occurring at a "re-test" point near the bottom and by the fact that the chart "broke away". When we look at long term breakaway gaps we almost invariably see a strong trend that never reaches back anywhere close to the gap. Contrast this with the gap at 94 which in no way would anyone ever call a breakaway as the market has come right back to that zone and (to me) quite obviously intends on filling that gap.

Not to say that TLT needs to stop dead in it's tracks at 94. It could reach down further although there are a lot of technical points that will be fighting further decline so I think it's a high probability short term trade and a very high probability long term trade. The highest probability trade would be to wait for a bounce and then buy on the up trend although this would be difficult to automate with a stop until TLT dips a little further.