Anatomy of a Market Panic Fakeout

I think the current market rebound is a fakeout and that the lows will be re-tested. Here is a chart from S&P futures:

The giveaway, I believe, is the A wave. It's a big spike up from a bottom but it's a 3 wave pattern. Even the correction within the A wave is 3 waves, and I believe serves as a reverse template for the correction at large.

The B wave is a classic consolidation pattern. Another leg down would have confirmed it for me but we just don't get lucky. Either way, you can tell that there are two distinct motive waves that look like waterfalls.

Now we have a motive wave as expected. I believe it's a C wave. My rule of thumb is always trade a major C wave because I've been tricked many times into thinking something is a C wave and it's really a motive wave. This may be another case although I would really be perplexed by the wave count. If so then oh well but here's what I really think...

I think this C wave unfolds like my blue lines and then comes back hard for the final down wave of the market panic.

The red bars indicate the red zone, or the likely areas where the C wave might end. Given the upward slop of the entire pattern I would say it would be higher rather than lower. EW theory says 4th waves end in the range of the prior 4th wave and it's easy to see the prior fourth wave which peaked at the top red bar.

If the market manages to get to 1210 then I think it would make an excellent short with a relatively tight stop at 1230.

If I'm right then the market should fall past the prior low of 1077. I would expect 1060 at the very least, and this would look like a "retest" which would not be out of line with technical expectations. However, I think it's quite possible, almost likely, that the market dips somewhat below the 1060 number. From a psychological perspective I think a market below 1000, or the DOW below 10,000 would be just the thing to get the bulls off balance.