Tuesday, September 20, 2011

1937 v 2011

I just discovered a rather remarkable analog for today's market with the 1937 market.

1937:

Today:

The thing that struck me immediately was that 1937 had 3 bounces off of the crash, none of which landed lower than the low point of the crash. This is exactly like today and differs from almost all other crashes.

The second thing that struck me is that 1937, like today's crash, began with a "golf club" correction.

Next I noticed that the crash in 1937 stopped at a horizontal resistance point just like today's crash. Finally, the bottom ended up at about the same technical point as the point I've been predicting for so many months: SPY 106.

There are differences to be sure. 1937 did not have an unorthodox B wave top following the "V" dip. The trends up, while similar, are not exact. Finally the scales are very different. Take a look at the numbers on the 1937 graph and you'll see that the oscillations in the 1,2,3 lumps are as large as our entire "crash". Truly a terrifying market!

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